New report exposes inflated load growth projections from data centers in the Southeast

WASHINGTON, D.C. – A new report released today by Greenlink Analytics and Science for Georgia, commissioned by the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC), finds that energy load growth attributed to data centers will likely be significantly lower than as-projected by utilities in Southeastern states.  

New modeling from the report, “Impacts of Projected Data Center Growth and Emerging Uncertainties on Power Demand in the Southeast”, finds utilities in Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina are planning for data-center-driven electricity demand growth that has a roughly 0.2% chance of actually occurring. These states are facing a massive proposed expansion of methane gas infrastructure and power plants to support data centers. The report raises serious questions about the assumptions used to justify that buildout. 

Greenlink Analytics and Science for Georgia developed an independent data center load forecast for the Southeast, using credible national and global market data on data center growth, Monte Carlo simulations, and compared this with utilities’ projections. The analysis demonstrates that utilities are betting on the highly unlikely, top end of the range projections.  This analysis, which utilized conservative assumptions with regards to any future  technological efficiency improvements, shows likely data center load growth in the Southeast  to be  approximately 2.4-6.7 GW over the next 5-6 years, while utilities are planning for over 10 GW—a scenario that is above 99.7% of the 100,000 of our simulations. The report’s second set of simulations, which assumes further potential energy efficiency gains for data centers from new and emerging technologies, forecasts that the utilities’ aggregate growth projection is even less likely: a 1-in-8,000 chance. 

“There is a lot that is still unclear  when it comes to the future of data center energy demand, but the evidence for massive demand growth that would justify this much capacity expansion from utilities just isn’t there,” said Kavin Manickaraj, Chief Data Scientist, Greenlink Analytics. “Our simulations show that even without any computational advancements the industry expects, there is about a 1 in 500 chance that we would need to build 10 GW of energy capacity throughout the Southeast to account for data centers.”  

“Over the course of researching this report, the utility estimates for load growth have only risen. Just last week, Georgia Power and the Georgia Public Service Commission staff agreed to a 10 GW expansion for Georgia alone. Yet, as our report shows, during the same time subject matter experts’ estimates have gone down,” said Amy Sharma, PhD, Executive Director, Science for Georgia. “This is a call to pump the brakes and take into account multiple inputs, before we burden the southeast with expensive stranded assets – assets that ratepayers will be accountable to pay for.”  

“This report is a sanity check on the pressure coming from all directions that more gas is urgently needed to support data center growth. It’s important that we slow down and look at the evidence that not only is there less projected demand than these utilities want us to believe, but there’s also significant downsides to building all the utilities’ proposed gas power plants and pipelines that will end up as expensive stranded assets on the backs of Southern ratepayers,” said Megan Gibson, Senior Attorney at the Southern Environmental Law Center. “If utilities are allowed to run wild overbuilding gas infrastructure for power demand that likely will not exist, Southern communities will end up paying the price with their pocketbooks and health.” 

Utilities and pipeline companies across the Southeastern United States are planning significant, long-term expansions of natural gas infrastructure over the next 15 years, with projected data center growth cited as a primary driver. Given utilities’ track record of over forecasting, and this additional analysis, policymakers, regulators, and communities should treat aggressive projections around ‘data center’ demand, and resulting plans for an extreme gas buildout, with healthy skepticism and demand more transparent, realistic planning.  

These findings echo another report commissioned by SELC earlier this year demonstrating the risk of duplicate proposals inflating load projections and a shortage in chips and showing that projected data center buildout is virtually impossible to achieve.  

Link to Report: 2025-Greenlink-IMPACTS-OF-PROJECTED-DATA-CENTER-GROWTH-Report.pdf